City leaders need to find some festive magic to avert an unhappy new year

As the world limps towards the end of a traumatic year in terms of climate change, rising poverty and hunger and urban inequality, its leaders face the reality that they have just over 1,800 more days to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by 1 January 2030.

For city dwellers, the goal that matters is number 11 (SDG11) that calls on global policymakers to make human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. But as each day passes, meeting that goal seems more urgent yet still further out of reach.

More than half the global population live in urban areas, which contribute four-fifths of the world’s annual economic output. However this population consumes around three-quarters of global resources, makes up 65% of energy use and contributes more than 70% of harmful CO2 emissions.

Researchers have established that cities' environmental impact, quantified by the amount of resources consumed to support economic and social functions, continues to grow, with urban areas expected to expand to twice their current size by the decade's end.

But the clock is ticking: by the year 2050, it is estimated that approximately 68% of the world's population will be living in urban areas, potentially overwhelming the infrastructure and resources of most cities.

Work continues regardless of the seemingly insurmountable challenge. The World Economic Forum points to initiatives such as the UN Development Programme’s work with Karachi in Pakistan to develop sustainable infrastructure projects and improve the living conditions of internally displaced populations affected by climate-related events.

Progressive cities appear determined to stay on the path towards reforms that will improve sustainability. Eurocities, a network of cities in the EU and neighbouring countries, believes urban centres can lead the charge towards tackling pressing global issues such as environmental sustainability, social disparities, and economic restructuring.

The momentum towards making cities smart will doubtless continue, not least because so many technology companies are keen to target this lucrative market. This year just ending may, at least, have been a positive one in terms of the mound of academic brainpower focused on urban sustainability.

One paper published at around the midpoint of this year found that a total of some 21,10 articles looking at SDG11 were published by 349 journals. These articles have amassed 229,182 citations in total.

Research may be plentiful and high quality, but action will need to continue to build on, and follow through on that. As ever, there are a host of intergovernmental and private sector conferences focusing on these issues, that will keep the issues in the headlines. But the elephant in the room is, inevitably, the re-election of Donald Trump as US president, taking office 20 days into the New Year.

As Adam Tooze, the Columbia University historian, said in a recent piece in the FT, on climate change the United States is US is once more halfway out the door” and that the China is well-placed to take the lead on the issue if it chooses.

But while the federal government might try to turn back history, US state governors and city mayors will have sufficient number, voice, and economic weight to ensure momentum is maintained.

The C40 Cities global group of mayors has insisted that its members in the US, which include New York, Chicago, and Miami, and elsewhere are focused on achieving the commitments of the Paris Agreement and ensuring continued progress towards reducing emissions, improving resilience, and preventing climate breakdown.

This is echoed by a call by Eurocities for the EU to “empower” cities to deliver solutions and exploit the full potential of local innovation to drive Europe’s transition to a just, green and digital future.

The new year is all about resolutions and commitments to a better life. For the four and half billion people who live in cities, it is world leaders who will need to show a commitment towards climate justice. There will only be five more news years' celebrations before the clock stops for SDG11.

A Trump presidency looks grim for cities, but there are grains of hope

The re-election of Donald #Trump as President of the United States has been the ballot that has been heard around the world, and perhaps nowhere more than in #cities trying to adapt to #climate change and mitigate its effects.

While urban development policy was hardly in either party's manifestos, given that more half the world's population live in cities — rising to around seven out of 10 people by 2050 — any dramatic policy changes under a Trump administration will be felt on the ground.

The most immediate impacts will, of course, be on cities in the US as changes to laws and budget funding will affect them directly. But many of his likely policy changes will have global impacts.

The most obvious impacts will come from a series of likely changes to US policies and attitudes on climate change. A cornerstone of the US administration was the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that poured millions of dollars of public money into clean energy investment.

Turning off that tap will limit the commercial development of innovations related to electric vehicles and energy generation that would have benefited cities proportionately more because of their higher energy use.

Another negative step will be if Trump again withdraws the US from the Paris climate agreement. He cannot do that until he takes on the presidency in late January but his pre-election pledge to do that will hang over the COP29 heads of state climate conference starting on 11 November in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Feeding into that decision is his claim that climate change is “one of the great scams of all time” while pledging to cancel spending on clean energy, abolish “insane” incentives for Americans to drive electric cars, scrap various environmental rules and has repeatedly heralded a “drill, baby, drill” era of new oil and gas.

Cloud’s silver lining

The leaders of the C40 group of the world’s largest cities unsurprisingly gave Trump’s election a sombre welcome, conceding that progress was not inevitable while insisting that asserting progressive values was more important than ever. “It’s deeply disappointing to see a climate crisis denier back in the White House. But mayors have always led on climate, and Donald Trump’s election doesn’t change that,” says C40 Cities Executive Director, Mark Watts.

Therein lies the hope: Watts is right in that mayors of cities kept the green transition alive in their jurisdictions during the first Trump presidency and will do so from Monday 20 January next year —  Inauguration Day. Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr, the mayor of Freetown, Sierra Leone and C40 Co-Chair, said cities are already tackling a climate crisis that is a “lived reality”.

It threatens the lives and livelihoods of millions of people across the Global South through fires, floods, food shortages and mass migration. “Cities are vital to tackling this crisis and C40 mayors will continue to do so,” she says.

The repeal of IRA may not go smoothly and may open the door to a reverse of the investment flow out of Europe. On the first point, the act is a complicated piece of legislation that will take time to unpick. It is estimated to have funded almost 650 projects, which have helped create more than 334,000 new jobs. Much of this money has been avidly take up by Republican politicians in congressional districts in Michigan, Texas, Georgia, California, and South Carolina who might put pressure on the White House not to turn off the tap.

If it is reversed, then it will cancel an incentive for climate innovators and investors to move investment to the US and away from Europe, which is also having a tough time competing against China. Its repeal could be a boon for European countries and companies and for Brussels as it sees the opportunity to attract back disgruntled investors. Just as Trump’s possible withdrawal of support for Ukraine is sharpening minds in the European defence sphere, so the IRA will do the same for the energy bureaucrats.

And for a bit of light relief, there are president-elect Trump’s policies on “freedom cities”. Last year he raised the idea of building up to 10 futuristic cities on federal land around the size of Washington DC, to provide houses and jobs for young aspirant homebuyers.

Of course, whether they would be positive or negative for the climate would have to be seen. But one academic analysis has warned that it is likely to “materially and symbolically manifest the reactionary and fascist thrusts of the Trumpian movement”, by excluding categories of people he sees as undesirable.

Trump’s second term will be hostile to “others” whether that is advocates for action on climate change or cities in the Global South whose citizens will need to migrate to escape the impacts of the emergency. The political climate is horrible but perhaps out of adversity will rise some positive and determined steps to rebut that.

Reducing city heat must be a key goal for World Bank climate mission

The annual meetings of the World Bank may primarily be a venue for national ministers but tackling the challenge presented by #urban #heat intensity must be part of the bank’s mission to create a #liveable #planet 

Sometimes it is the very small facts about climate change that really pull you up short. The temperature inside the minibuses that transport 16 million workers within South African cities can hit 39 deg C (102 deg), one study found. 

And residents in cities in Latin America can expect to have to endure 80 days of extreme heat conditions out of every 365 by the year 2050. Plainly humans cannot thrive in those conditions and may even struggle to survive.

With around two thirds of the world's population now living in cities, reducing their impact on climate change will be essential to meeting the global target of keeping the rise in global temperatures to less than 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels. 

Using satellite imagery from 100 East Asian cities, the Bank’s researchers found that they were, on average, 1.6 to 2.0 deg C hotter than their surroundings. Known as urban heat intensity (UHI), this contributes in two ways — absorbing energy from the sun in man-made surfaces and buildings, and the lack of water and wind reduces natural cooling effects.

Amid the five days of intense gatherings and bilateral meetings between national government ministers that are the essential part of the World bank’s annual meetings, some of its senior executives held a Knowledge Café — an informal meeting open to anyone with a badge to the meetings — on adapting to extreme urban heat.

Ming Zhang, global director for the bank’s urban, resilience and land global department highlighted a series of temperatures records that have been broken just in the last few months alone: the world's hottest twice in one July week; the hottest August since records began; and the second hottest September. “Extreme heat is already a reality for people, economies and infrastructure in all regions,” he said.

Given that the Bank’s slogan under new president Ajay Banga is to create a world free from poverty on a liveable planet, extreme urban heat will be an insurmountable obstacle to liveability. Bank figures show that with just two degrees Celsius of global warming, 2 million people in South Asia, 1 million in East Asia and 800 million in Africa would regularly experience such unendurable heat conditions by 2050.

While it is essential to mitigate against global warming by reducing carbon emissions, that is the job for the rich developed nations in north America and  Europe whose activities have generated pollution over the past centuries but enjoy relatively temperate climates.

Places, people & institutions

Cities in the Global South, which are mostly situated in countries with the lowest level of fiscal resource,  will need to adapt to the impacts of climate change, and will need financial assistance from the rich countries to do that. What might this involve? Zhang highlighted three areas: places, people and institutions.

Within the first, water- and vegetation-based interventions can lower peak daily temperatures by as much as 2 to 7 deg C. Incorporating ventilation corridors into urban planning codes and masterplans can bring down temperatures while climate-sensitive designs that use shades such as covered walkways and shaded public spaces can reduce temperatures.

People-focused initiatives might include yellow, orange and the red alerts when temperatures reach dangerous levels, provision of public drinking water outlets and the better protection of heat-exposed workers. For institutional reform, many cities around the world have appointed  extreme heat task forces or created chief heat officer roles.

As a multilateral lender, owned and responsible to its 189 country shareholders, the Bank can only lead by example and seek to put its knowhow into practice. As Niels Holm-Nielsen, its global lead on resilience and disaster risk management, told the café, it is developing decision support tools that are relatively cheap and fast to implement and which include nature-based solutions (NBS) for climate resilience. 

These use resources and incorporate processes already found in nature to restore ecosystems and support communities. Whether it a project for reforesting or reinforcing wetlands, every little initiative can make a difference.